Corn is a member of the grass family of plants and is a native grain of the American continents. Fossils of corn pollen that are over 80,000 years old have been found in lake sediment under Mexico City. Archaeological discoveries show that cultivated corn existed in the southwestern U.S. for at least 3,000 years, indicating that the indigenous people of the region cultivated corn as a food crop long before the Europeans reached the New World. Corn is a hardy plant that grows in many different areas of the world. It can grow at altitudes as low as sea level and as high as 12,000 feet in the South American Andes Mountains. Corn can also grow in tropical climates that receive up to 400 inches of rainfall per year, or in areas that receive only 12 inches of rainfall per year. Corn is used primarily as livestock feed in the United States and the rest of the world. Other uses for corn are alcohol additives for gasoline, adhesives, corn oil for cooking and margarine, sweeteners, and as food for humans. Corn is the largest crop in the U.S., both in terms of the value of the crop and of the acres planted.
The largest futures market for corn is at the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn futures also trade at the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F) in Brazil, the Budapest Commodity Exchange, the Marche a Terme International de France (MATIF), the Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires in Argentina, the Kanmon Commodity Exchange (KCE) in Korea, and the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE). The CBOT futures contract calls for the delivery of 5000 bushels of No. 2 yellow corn at par contract price, No. 1 yellow at 1-1/2 cents per bushel over the contract price, or No. 3 yellow at 1-1/2 cents per bushel below the contract price.
Prices - Corn futures prices in 2009 traded in the relatively narrow range of $3.00-$4.50 after the temporary upward spike to a record high of $7.6250 per barrel seen in June 2008. That upward spike was caused by the feverish commodity bubble in late-2007 and early-2008, which was eventually popped by the global financial crisis in September 2008. Corn prices are nevertheless still trading in a substantially higher range than the average price of $2.50 per bushel seen before 2006, mainly because of the huge demand for corn that started to emerge in 2006 from ethanol producers. The percentage of the corn crop used by ethanol producers, which was only 11% in the 2002-2004 period, quickly ramped up to a record high of 32.7% in the 2009/10 marketing year. That percentage will continue to climb to at least 35% in coming years due to the U.S. government's renewable fuel mandates. Other categories of demand for corn from the feed, food and export categories have also been strong, leading to a +5.4% compounded annual growth for corn usage in the 2006-09 period. Strong corn demand is likely to continue in coming years due to further increases in the U.S. corn-based ethanol mandate, the economic recovery, and a continued increase in food demand tied to improved living standards in the developing world. However, trend improvements in yield due to improved seeds and cultivation techniques are likely to allow the size of the corn crop to keep up with demand, thus keeping a relative balance between supply and demand. At present, there are adequate corn supplies given the good growing weather in the summer of 2009 and the record-sized crop of 13.151 billion bushels. The USDA is forecasting a similar-sized record crop for summer 2010 of 13.160 billion bushels that would help to keep corn prices under wraps.
Supply - World production of corn in the 2009-10 marketing year rose +0.6% to a new record high of 796.446 million metric tons. The world's largest corn producers are the U.S. with 42% of world production, China (19%), and Brazil (6%). Corn production in both China and Brazil has nearly doubled since 1980. Production in the U.S. over that same time frame has risen by about 50%. The world area harvested with corn in 2009-10 fell -1.1% yr/yr to 309.2 million hectares, down from the 13-year high of 318.0 million hectares in 2007-08. World ending stocks of corn and coarse grains in 2009-10 fell -4.5% to 180.2 million metric tons.
U.S. corn production estimate for the 2009-10 marketing year (Sep-Aug) rose by +8.8% yr/yr to a new record high of 13.151 billion bushels. U.S. farmers harvested a record high of 79.630 million acres of corn for grain usage in 2009-10, which was up +1.4% yr/yr. U.S. corn yield in 2009-10 rose +7.3% to a new record high of 165.2 bushels per acre. U.S. carry-over stocks on June 1, 2009 rose +5.8% to 4.261 billion bushels. The largest corn producing states in the U.S. in 2009 were Iowa with 19% of U.S. production, Illinois (16%), Nebraska (12%), Minnesota (10%), and Indiana (7%). The value of the U.S. corn crop in 2008-09 (latest data) was $47.378 billion.
Demand - World consumption of corn and rough grains in 2009-10 rose by +2.8% yr/yr to 1,102.4 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The U.S. distribution tables for corn show that in 2008-09 (latest data) the largest category of usage, aside from animal feed, is for ethanol production (alcohol fuel) with 4.000 billion bushels. That was up +33% from 2007-08 and is 75.0% of total non-feed usage. Corn usage for ethanol is more than five times the usage in 2000 and that usage category is likely to grow if there is a return of the high prices of crude oil and gasoline. After ethanol, the largest non-feed usage categories are for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) with 9% of U.S. usage, corn starch (5%), glucose and dextrose sugars (5%), cereal and other corn products (4%), and alcoholic beverages (3%).
Trade - U.S. exports of corn in 2007-08 (latest data available) rose +12.1% yr/yr to 60.685 million metric tons, which is getting close to the record high of 61.417 million metric tons posted in 1979-80. The largest destination countries for U.S. corn exports are Japan, which accounted for 25% of U.S. corn exports in 2007-08, Mexico (16%), South Korea (14%), Taiwan (6%), Egypt (5%), and Canada (5%).
Articles from the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Commodity Yearbook. The single most comprehensive source of commodity and futures market information available, the Yearbook is the book of record of the Commodity Research Bureau, which is, in turn, the organization of record for the commodity industry itself. Its sources - reports from governments, private industries, and trade and industrial associations - are authoritative, and its historical scope is second to none. Additional information can be found at www.crbyearbook.com.